Un articol interesant

"Asia Times" pare un ziar bine informat despre ce se intampla in Iran. De multe ori am gasit acolo analize si stiri pe care nu le potzi citi in presa americana sau europeana.

De exemplu, tot ce stim despre relatziile irano - chineze este ca chinezii au sprijint Iranul pe cat au putut, dat fiind ca Iranul este un mare furnizor de petrol al Chinei. Insa relatziiile intre cele doua tzari sant mult mai complexe, mai ales ca China a inceput sa mizeze pe ... Arabia Saudita, care este una din tzarile amenintzate de Iran.

Articolul urmator, desi cam lung face sa fie citit. Iata cateva fragmente ca aperitiv.

China's Middle East journey via Jerusalem
By M K Bhadrakumar, Asia Times

... Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao openly rebuffed Tehran's claim that the United Nations Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on Iran was a mere "piece of paper". Wen said, "Resolution 1737 adopted unanimously by the UN Security Council members reflects the concerns of the international community about the Iranian nuclear issue."

... Chinese President Hu Jintao told Larijani last Thursday, "The UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1737, which reflects the shared concerns of the international community over the Iranian nuclear issue, and we hope Iran will make a serious response to the resolution" (emphasis added).

The shift in the Chinese position comes at a particularly opportune moment for Washington when it has decided to get tough on Iran. US President George W Bush's address on Wednesday on a new Iraq strategy contained no conciliatory references to tapping Iran's regional influence. On the contrary, Bush cited Iran as responsible for supporting Shi'ite "death squads", for providing safe haven to "terrorists and insurgents", and for sustaining "networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq".

But the most important factor in Chinese thinking will be the strategic considerations of its relationship with Saudi Arabia. The exchange of visits by King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud and Hu to each other's capitals within a four-month period early last year greatly cemented Saudi-Chinese political equations.

The crucial Saudi role in the proposed buildup of China's strategic oil reserves should not be underestimated. China is planning to build four strategic reserve bases at Zhenhai, Daishan, Xingang and Huangdao, which when completed next year will be able to hold the equivalent of one month's national oil imports. Beijing plans to expand the reserves to the equivalent of three months' net oil imports by 2015.

Saudi Arabia's credentials for helping China fulfill its target are far more credible than Iran's. Apart from supplying 17% of China's total oil imports currently and making multi-billion-dollar investments in China's petrochemical sector, Saudi Arabia, as a "swing producer", has unique capability to produce oil significantly above its Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries quota. The expert estimation is that if Saudi Arabia chose to produce for the next three-year period an extra half-million barrels of oil a day for Beijing, that alone would bring China's strategic oil reserve to three months' supply. That is why China has offered extraordinary privileges to Saudi Arabia in the collaboration over the setting-up of the strategic oil reserve.

The criticality of China's "Saudi connection" needs no further elaboration. Besides, China cannot hope to diversify significantly away from the Middle East for its oil supplies. Two-thirds of proven oil reserves are in that region. According to the International Energy Agency, China's dependence on the Middle East will exceed 75% of its total imports by 2015.

Translated to the geopolitical plane, simply put, China has to be sensitive about the Saudi stance toward Iran. Riyadh's animus toward Tehran is real. It is born out of the instincts of self-preservation of the Saudi regime. It is quite intractable insofar as it is intertwined with acute factional rivalries within the Saudi royal family. These rivalries seem to be coming to a boil. The Associated Press reported that King Abdullah was considering a major cabinet reshuffle that might include the key posts of foreign minister and oil minister.

Intregul articol aici.