Iran nuke threat real, expert says

"A U.S. Middle East policy expert warned yesterday that international diplomatic efforts to convince Iran to halt it's nuclear program may be moving too slowly, that Iran might be able to develop nuclear weapons before economic sanctions and other measures can have an effect.

"There is a real problem that the international community might only recognize the gravity of the situation when it's too late," said Robert Satloff, the executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Robert Satloff, the author and editor of nine books and monographs on the Arab-Israeli peace process, called Iran's combative politics "a state effort" and not the policies of only its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

"He's only a small actor in this. He gives a public face to Iran's foreign policy. The real decision maker is the country's supreme leader (the Muslim cleric) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei," he said.

Iranian nuclear negotiators met with European leaders in another round of talks yesterday. There is a November deadline for the delivery of a report on Iran's nuclear program to the U.N. Security Council. However, Ahmadinejad said yesterday that any Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions on Iran would be worthless, adding that Iran would not give in to international pressure intended to stop it from enriching uranium and producing nuclear fuel, which Iran claims is for civilian purposes.
Some have speculated that because of Ahmadinejad's stated threats against Israel, Israel will strike Iran's nuclear facilities should the moment near when Iran could develop operative nuclear weapons. However, Satloff said that a military solution is "a preferred option for no one."

"The preferred outcome is that the international community imposes such pressure on Iran that they are dissuaded from pursuing a nuclear weapons program," he said.

Concerning the war in Iraq, Satloff does not expect U.S. troops to be out of the country any time soon. He said none of the Democratic candidates for president has committed to having U.S. troops out of Iraq before 2012. "One way or another, the U.S. will be in Iraq in some form for a while," he said.

Satloff said that once the bulk of U.S. troops have left Iraq, the chances of a Sunni Shiite war spreading throughout the Middle East, as some have predicted will follow, "is very low."
"Much more likely is Iran's aggressiveness, that it will seek to expand its influence in the Middle East," he said.

In his speech last night, Satloff discussed his latest book, "Among the Righteous: Lost Stories from the Holocaust's Long Reach into Arab Lands."

He was the final speaker in this year's Springfield Public Forum at Symphony Hall, a free series of weekly lectures that is in its 72nd year.
His work has appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post. United Bank was co-sponsor of this segment of the Public Forum, which is celebrating its 72nd year."

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by Stan Freeman, from: The Republican, Oct.25, 2007