Sunday, January 21, 2007

Si ce mai e nou cu frère Jacques


Those were the days, my friend

In urma cu cateva zile a aparut o stire interesanta: Chirac intentzioneaza sa trimita in Iran un emisar sa discute din nou problema. O zi dupa aceea, Rice a condamnat in termeni voalatzi intentzia franceza.


Amir Taheri dezvolta subiectul in articolul sau "A man who does not learn from experience", aratand cum se leaga Iranul de o eventuala declaratzie a lui Chirac ca va candida din nou.


Cateva citate:


Oblivious that it is curtain time for him at the Elysee Palace, France's President Jacques Chirac is trying what could be his last throw of the diplomatic dice.


Chirac wants to try his luck with the Khomeinist regime in Tehran in the hope of persuading it to reduce its nuclear ambitions, abandon Hezballah, and join France in creating a new "axis of independence". That is to say an anti-American bloc, in the Middle East.


... Still harbour illusions about securing a third term as president, Chirac may be banking on a sensational diplomatic coup to help launch his bid in the teeth of opposition from his own neo-Gaullist party. His last few remaining friends are already trying to portray him as "the wise old man" of international politics, one who opposed "George W Bush's folly" of invading Iraq.


Here is how things are supposed to work out, according to Chirac's imagination: a senior French emissary, a former head of the country's secret services, goes to Tehran and obtains a one-on-one-with the "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenehi. The emissary, Jean-Calude Cousseran, tells the top mullah that the "Anglo-Saxons", that is to say the US and Britain, are preparing to take military action against the Islamic Republic. He will intimate some supposedly secret information on the subject, and will point to the US naval build up in the region as a sure sign that something is afoot.


Next, the French spook will ask Khamenehi to nominate a senior person, preferably former President Hashemi Rafsanjani who has always been a favorite of Chirac, to handle the nuclear issue on behalf of the Islamic Republic. This would marginalize the "loudmouth" President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who has bet his career, may be even his life, on taking on the Americans and defeating them on the battlefield.


Once the Khomeinists have offered encouraging gestures, Chirac would send his Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, the last of the Mohicans in the Chiraquian camp, to Tehran to clinch the deal. This would consist of an announcement by Tehran that it has agreed to suspend uranium enrichment until next September, the earliest date at which Iran's only nuclear power plant, at Hellieh, is supposed to become partially operational.


Chirac would then call for a postponement of the United Nations Security Council meeting, due in March, and call on the US and the UK to withdraw their naval forces from waterways close to Iran.


Chirac, the " grand old man of international politics" and the" champion of peace", would then announce his candidacy for the presidency and call on " French women and Frenchmen" to elect him so that he could save the world from another Bushian folly.


What chance does Chirac have of seeing his fantasy come true? The answer is none.


... Chirac's diplomacy never produced anything positive for France or for anyone else for that matter. However, it did encourage the worst tendencies of radical adventurers such as Saddam, Kaddhafi and Khomeini. Today, he is playing his old game of selling the illusion that the mullahs can hoodwink the rest of the world with help from Paris and thumb their nose at the Security Council. The mullahs would be mad to fall for Chirac's last, and pitiful, bamboozle. What Chirac is offering can only hasten another war in the Middle East.


Intregul articol aici.

No comments: