Domestic Factors Driving Russia's Foreign Policy

The Heritage Foundation publica un lung articol al lui Ariel Cohen analizand substraturile politicii rusesti. Contrar imaginii pe care incearca sa o creeze autoritatzile putiniste, mama Rusia este departe de a se reintoarce ca super-putere pe scena internationala.

Intregul articol poate fi citit aici. In cele ce urmeaza iata cateva fragmente analizand problema demografica care va fi si factorul cel mai important in caderea Rusiei in mai putin de o generatie.

Demographic Catastrophe
The great-power ambitions of Moscow's current elites cannot be realized without ample, developed, and highly skilled human resources. Since the 1980s, however, Russia has experienced dramatic declines in population, fertility, and life expectancy combined with increases in mortality and disease rates, including a rise in the rates of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis infection.

From 1995 to mid-2007, Russia's total popula­tion dropped by 6.5 million people, down to 142 million--a decline of almost 4.4 percent.[6] Such a drop typically is the result of war or mass emigra­tion, but it is occurring in a largely peaceful Russia that has a growing economy and positive immigra­tion rate. Russia's population is the world's ninth-largest but is projected to drop to 128.5 million by 2025 and 109.4 million by 2050.[7]

Because of the low birthrate and the high mortal­ity rate, Russia is losing an average of 700,000 peo­ple per year. In 2006, the mortality rate was 15.2 deaths per 1,000 people, and the birthrate was just 10.4 births per 1,000 people. While the birthrate is low compared to other industrial states, the death rate, particularly among working-age males, is astonishing. Life expectancy for Russian males is only 59 years, five years below what it was 40 years ago and 13 years lower than the life expectancy of Russian women--one of the largest gaps in the world.[8] The current solution of stimulating births by paying over $4,000 per baby may create a hered­itary welfare problem where there now is none and encourage growth among both Russia's Muslim population and its urban and rural poor.

The incidence of cardiovascular disease and can­cer in the Russian population is among the highest in the world and accounts for the surge in Russian mortality rates. External (preventable) causes, such as accidents, account for 15 percent of deaths.[9] Even with fewer cars per capita than other indus­trial states, the number of deaths in traffic-related accidents per 100,000 people is higher in Russia than in other industrialized countries. Homicide deaths reached 30,000 in 2006, equaling the num­ber of deaths from accidental alcohol poisoning, but even more died from suicide.[10] Heavy alcoholism also helps to explain the high rates of heart disease. Many Russian men seem to choose lifestyles with dire health consequences.
Deadly Epidemics. Russia is suffering from epi­demics of HIV/AIDS, assorted other sexually trans­mitted diseases, and tuberculosis. The HIV infection rate is growing faster in Russia than in any other country outside of Sub-Saharan Africa.[11] An esti­mated 1.3 million (1.1 percent) Russian adults are already infected.[12] AIDS-related deaths are hard to measure, partly because of Russia's tuberculosis epi­demic. According to the World Heath Organization, almost 150 people per 100,000 in Russia are infected with tuberculosis.[13]

The vast majority of HIV infections in Russia are associated with intravenous drug use, which is widespread among young people.[14] According to some estimates, nearly 2 million Russians (1.96 per­cent) inject drugs.[15] A Russian drug control official has predicted that the total number of drug users will grow from over 4 million to over 35 million by 2014.[16] This dramatic rise is fueled by cheap opiate narcotics from Afghanistan and Central Asia[17] and by domestically produced synthetic drugs.

Ethnic Changes.
Central Asia is also a source of Muslim migrants. While the numbers and health of Russia's ethnic Slavs and Orthodox Christians con­tinue to decline, Russia's Muslim population is growing, rapidly transforming the ethnic makeup of Russian society.

Fertility and birthrates are much higher among Muslim ethnic groups than among ethnic Slavs. In 2006, predominantly Muslim regions had the highest population growth rates: 1.79 percent in Chechnya, 1.16 percent in Ingushetia, and 0.65 percent in Dagestan. The national average was -0.37 percent.[18]

Since 1989, Russia's Muslim population has increased by 40 percent, rising to 20 million-25 million. Moscow's Muslim population of about 2.5 million is the largest of all European cities. Muslims could make up a majority of Russia's conscript army by 2015 and one-fifth of the population by 2020.[19]

This has drastic political, cultural, and ideological implications for Russia. Ethnic Russians feel uneasy as the prevailing ethnically based notion of the Rus­sian national identity is being challenged. The changing ethnic makeup of Russian society and the growing radicalization of Islam fuel ethnic tensions among Russian citizens.

Implications of the Demographic Decline.
These demographic shifts are already affecting Rus­sia's ability to project power. The Russian military is failing to meet its recruitment targets because of a declining pool of fit conscripts and their semi-legal efforts to avoid the draft.[20] Some demographers predict that in just nine years--by 2016--the pool of conscripts will be half Muslim.[21] It is also not clear that a majority Muslim, non-ethnic Russian army will willingly take on missions to carry the Russian flag forward either in the "near abroad" (the 14 other former Soviet republics) or elsewhere.
In addition, the workforce will further shrink in size and quality. (See Chart 1.) The population is diseased, aging, and dying. In many countries, immigration has helped to mitigate the economic effects of population decline. In Russia, most immi­grants are from Central Asian former Soviet repub­lics and increasingly from China and Afghanistan. Yet, as growing xenophobia and racism in Russia suggest, ethnic Russians mostly disapprove of non-Slavic immigration.

The Russian government is unable to address the lingering health and demographic crisis. In 2004, health care spending reached a low of 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).[22] In 2007, Russia intends to spend $10.2 billion[23] on President Putin's "national priority projects," but so far, this funding has failed to improve Russia's collapsed public health sector.

Radicalization of Russia's Muslims
The Krem­lin faces a growing challenge in dealing with Mus­lim communities. While most Muslims in Russia are indigenous peoples of multiethnic Russia, the distinction between immigrants and citizens is often blurred in xenophobic discourse. Many Russians associate Islam with extremists, and their anti-Islamic prejudice is growing. At the same time, many recognize the more moderate nature of Tatar and Bashkir Islam. As Russia's Muslim population grows and interest in the religion surges, its members become vulnerable to extremist ideas, even in currently moderate areas.

Proponents of radical Islam have their own expansionist and often violent agendas. Radicalism spreads in many regions because of local griev­ances--including Stalinist persecution and ethnic cleansing, poverty, and corruption--and radicaliz­ing foreign Islamic influences.

Since 1991, Russia's Muslims have been exposed to the ideas of Islamic fundamentalism, reinforced by intensive foreign penetration through education, propaganda, and financing.[43]

The total number of mosques in Russia has increased from 300 in 1991 to 4,000 in 2001 to over 8,000 in 2007.[44] Private foundations in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states have financed the construction of many mosques and have sent clerics to run them. Often, foreign clerics rejected traditional local Hanafi and Shaf'i schools of Islam and preached Salafi Islam and Wahhabisim, previ­ously unknown in Russia. Although the new prac­tices appear stricter and more radical, they continue to gain in popularity.

No accurate estimates of the strength of radical Islamists in Russia are available. As Alexey Malash­enko of the Carnegie Moscow Center has written:
An entire mythology has developed around it, created by forces within the state, jour­nalists, and the Islamists themselves. All of them, albeit for different reasons, tend to exaggerate the power of the Islamists.[45]

The authorities inflate the power of the adver­sary, while the Islamists elevate their own self-image to gain influence and attract funds. Lacking a basic understanding of Islam and its practices, the Krem­lin fails both to realize the dangers of radical Islam and to provide a coherent policy response.

The political influence of Russia's Muslims will, however, remain limited by their cultural, ethnic, and religious divisions. The diversity of Russia's Muslims presents both a challenge and an opportu­nity for the Kremlin.[46] It needs to work carefully to limit the spread of potentially violent radicalism without alienating the rest of the Muslim commu­nity. This is a significant challenge in a country in which national identity is still malleable.